July 2026 Summer Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast
EIA forecast in its July 7, 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook that U.S. wholesale electricity prices would average about $45/MWh in summer 2026, $4/MWh lower than summer 2025. That converts to 4.5 cents/kWh at the wholesale level, but it should not be read as a direct household bill price because residential retail prices also include delivery, taxes, fees, and regulated rate timing.
Key Analytical Findings
- EIA forecast U.S. wholesale electricity prices would average about $45/MWh in summer 2026, $4/MWh below summer 2025.
- $45/MWh converts to 4.5 cents/kWh, while EIA also listed a 2026 residential electricity price forecast of 18.3 cents/kWh in the same July 2026 STEO electricity table.
- For 1,000 kWh, a $4/MWh wholesale decrease equals about $4 of generation-market cost before any utility rate design, delivery charges, taxes, riders, or regulatory lag.
- EIA forecast larger wholesale declines in several western hubs and MISO, but EIA also warned that heat waves can cause temporary wholesale price spikes above monthly-average forecasts.
The July 2026 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook is useful for households mainly because it separates wholesale market pressure from the delivered price on a residential bill. EIA forecast U.S. wholesale electricity prices this summer at about $45/MWh, down $4/MWh from summer 2025, while its electricity table listed a 2026 residential price forecast of 18.3 cents/kWh.
Those two numbers live in different parts of the bill story. Wholesale prices reflect the cost of supplying electricity in power markets, often driven by fuel costs, demand, and the marginal generator. Residential retail prices are delivered average prices and include generation, transmission, distribution, taxes, and fees.
That distinction matters during heat waves. EIA said lower summer wholesale prices primarily reflected lower natural gas costs delivered to power plants, but it also said summer heat waves can temporarily push wholesale prices higher than the monthly-average forecast.
What the July 2026 STEO forecast said
EIA released the July 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook on July 7, 2026, with the forecast completed July 1, 2026. In the electricity, coal, and renewables section, EIA forecast U.S. wholesale electricity prices this summer would be about $45/MWh, $4/MWh lower than summer 2025.
EIA attributed the lower wholesale forecast mainly to lower costs of natural gas delivered to power plants, particularly in the western part of the country. It also noted that natural gas-fired power plants are often the marginal generator that ultimately determines power prices.
The forecast was not uniform by region. EIA said Northwest Mid-Columbia prices were forecast to fall from $50/MWh in summer 2025 to $27/MWh in summer 2026, California prices were forecast to fall 30% to $23/MWh, Southwest prices were forecast to fall 27% to $28/MWh, and MISO prices were forecast to fall from $56/MWh to $46/MWh.
Original cents-per-kWh comparison
Original conversion table: the national wholesale forecast of $45/MWh equals 4.5 cents/kWh, because one MWh equals 1,000 kWh. The implied summer 2025 wholesale benchmark is $49/MWh, or 4.9 cents/kWh, because EIA described the 2026 forecast as $4/MWh lower.
The same STEO electricity table lists the 2026 residential electricity price forecast at 18.3 cents/kWh. On that basis, the summer wholesale forecast equals about 24.6% of the annual residential forecast price, showing why a wholesale movement cannot be mapped one-for-one onto a home bill.
Using the latest verified EnergyBillLab residential-rate data, EIA reported the May 2026 U.S. residential average at 18.44 cents/kWh in the Electricity Monthly Update released July 23, 2026. Against that May value, 4.5 cents/kWh is about 24.4% of the delivered residential average.
What the wholesale change means for 1,000 kWh
A household using 1,000 kWh would not see a bill calculated directly from the $45/MWh wholesale number. But the conversion helps set scale: 1,000 kWh at 4.5 cents/kWh equals $45 of wholesale-market energy value, while 1,000 kWh at the 18.3 cents/kWh STEO residential forecast equals $183 before household-specific bill details.
The year-over-year wholesale decrease is also small when translated to a single household scenario. A $4/MWh decrease equals 0.4 cents/kWh, so 1,000 kWh multiplied by 0.4 cents/kWh equals about $4. That is a market-cost scale marker, not a promised customer-bill reduction.
If a household's bill rises during summer 2026, usage can still dominate the month even when wholesale averages are lower. An extra 250 kWh of air-conditioning use at the May 2026 residential average of 18.44 cents/kWh models to about $46.10 before fixed charges, taxes, riders, and local tariff details.
Why retail bills may lag wholesale markets
EIA explains that wholesale electricity prices reflect short-run supply costs on the power grid, while most consumers pay prices based on the seasonal average cost of providing electricity. Some customers on time-of-day pricing see more direct timing signals, but many residential bills smooth those market movements.
EIA also states that its published average retail electricity prices include all costs for delivered electricity, including generation, transmission, distribution, taxes, and fees. Those published retail prices are not the same thing as a utility tariff rate applied to an individual household.
That means a lower summer wholesale forecast can ease one pressure on supply costs without automatically lowering every residential bill. Utility rate cases, fuel adjustments, supplier contracts, delivery charges, fixed customer charges, taxes, and usage changes can all change the final bill.
How to use this forecast as a household signal
Treat the July 2026 STEO forecast as a market context signal, not as a personal bill forecast. If your summer bill changes, compare kWh per billing day, your effective cents/kWh, and any line-item changes before assigning the cause to wholesale prices.
EnergyBillLab tools can handle the household-specific part. The Electricity Bill Analyzer compares two bills and separates usage change from effective-rate change. The AC Cost Calculator estimates cooling kWh from equipment size, efficiency, runtime, and duty cycle.
Methodology and limits
This article uses the EIA July 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook released July 7, 2026, and the EIA May 2026 Electricity Monthly Update released July 23, 2026. The STEO values are forecasts. The May 2026 residential price is an observed average revenue per kWh value for the residential sector.
The article does not forecast utility tariffs, supplier offers, time-of-use rates, fixed customer charges, fuel riders, taxes, municipal fees, or individual household bills. It converts official wholesale $/MWh values into cents/kWh and compares them with official residential cents/kWh benchmarks for scale.
At the July 2026 STEO national summer wholesale forecast, 1,000 kWh equals about $45 of wholesale-market energy value. At the 2026 STEO residential price forecast of 18.3 cents/kWh, 1,000 kWh equals about $183 before household-specific bill components.
Data Methodology & Limits
Formulas: cents/kWh = dollars per MWh divided by 10. Wholesale cost for 1,000 kWh = dollars per MWh because 1 MWh equals 1,000 kWh. Wholesale share of residential benchmark = 4.5 cents/kWh divided by the residential cents/kWh benchmark. Household dollar scenarios are rounded at the presentation step.
Official Data Sources & Citations
- U.S. Energy Information Administration — Short-Term Energy Outlook: Electricity, Coal, and Renewables (July 2026 STEO release date, summer 2026 wholesale electricity price forecast, regional hub changes, and 2026 residential electricity price forecast.)
- U.S. Energy Information Administration — Short-Term Energy Outlook: July 2026 Text Report (Forecast completion date, summer 2026 cooling-degree-day forecast, and heat-wave uncertainty language.)
- U.S. Energy Information Administration — Electricity explained: Prices and factors affecting prices (Wholesale electricity price definition, seasonal retail pricing context, and residential retail-price structure.)
- U.S. Energy Information Administration — Does EIA publish electricity sales and price data by state and by utility? (Average retail electricity price definition, delivered-cost components, and distinction from utility rates.)
- U.S. Energy Information Administration — Electricity Monthly Update: May 2026 (Latest verified EnergyBillLab residential electricity benchmark during this run: May 2026 U.S. residential average price of 18.44 cents/kWh.)